All long-range L1 vector enthusiasts take note. January 28 through February 05, the predicted K index is quite low.

Planetary K Index Forecast

With a maximum Kp=2, the early morning K index values should be darn close to zero, if the forecast is right. On 1/09/2002, in the early morning, with the K index = 0 at mid-latitudes, it was possible to get good, fixed integer solutions on 300 km+ baselines with less than 1 hr. of L1 observations only. (Although these solutions required cheating by using Rapid Orbits).

Best regards,
Kent McMillan, RPLS Austin TX

Kent, thanks for the site. One day I will understand it!

I had a look at some of the other data-sets on that site, especailly the sunspot activity and this grabbed my attention:

"Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. Solar wind velocities peaked early on 11 January with
“gusts” as high as 700 km/sec, then gradually decreased."

It seems NASA have a satilite for everything.

I never thought of solar-wind GUSTING!!

Very interesting, but what is RADIO FLUX 10.7cm? I assume that is the wavelength of a frequency they use, but for what?

Is K index the amount of electrons in the ionosphere?

somebody wake up JD...sounds like a good time to ORGI...

Stephen:

The K index is a measure of variability in the Earth's magnetic field. Rapid changes in the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere work to defeat L1 GPS measurements, and the K index appears to be correllated with those fluctuations. High values are bad. A K index = 0 is outstanding.

A space weather scientist used this analogy in describing the mechanism behind ionospheric scintillation at mid-latitudes. The Electron Flux is like the gas. It is necessary. But a large fluctuation in the magnetic field is like stomping the accelerator pedal. It really sets things in motion.

Best regards,
Kent McMillan, RPLS Austin TX
Modified By Kent McMillan on 1/21/2002 at 11:30 AM

I made this observation known last week on the main P.O.B. board. Actually I've been waiting for the obvious real time conditions, not long term predictions. We've been experiencing the effects of a coronal hole for a few days, evident by the higher than normal solar wind. It seems the solar wind has an effect (scintillation) on the ionosphere that can cause problems with GPS, especially L1 only. I've been watching the conditions of the current sun spots, and their predicted ability to produce M class or greater storms. So far they are in a very mild category.

Next Thursday may be a "GO", depending on several factors. One of which is the conditions at "Crawfish Kitchen, LA".


J.D., Stumpwater R&D

J.D.:

As I'm sure you've noted, sunspot activity has roughly a 27 day period, the time that it takes for the Sun to rotate an active zone away from us and return.

Since the space weather on 1/09/2000 was excellent, adding about 27 days to that is not entirely a bad guess for the return of the "clear" ionosphere.

Best regards,
Kent McMillan, RPLS Austin TX

of coronal holes. They don't tend to pattern themselves to the exact 27 day rotational period. Nor does the condition of individual sunspot groups. If you recall, just a few weeks ago SS group 9673 (I think that was the number) rather unexpectedly grew from relatively small size to over 60 earth diameters in about 7 days. And, if memory serves, was responsible for at least one X class flare, although I think it was not earth directed.

J.D.

just stressing daily checks for better user prediction needs. think of it as comparing "broadcast ephemeris" with "precise".....

J.D.:

Compare the space weather at:

Space Weather Records

Would you have rather been ORGIing on:

11/13/2001
12/10/2001
01/06/2002

(a series of rough minima 27 days apart) or
would you rather have been at it on

11/26/2001
12/23/2001 and
01/19/2002 ?

I realize that the 27 day rule is a bit simple-minded, but so am I at times.

Best regards,
Kent McMillan, RPLS Austin TX

to log onto the noaa.sec site AND the NASA spaceweather.com site each day. Understanding the arrival time of disturbances from coronal mass ejections, and watching for the tell tell signs of cme's from the x-ray flux, one can do a fairly decent job of predicting conditions over a 24 to 72 hour period. That's just one of the basics I've learned from daily (often multiple daily) observations since August, last.

J.D.

i remember the post on the main board...just checking for a pulse...
now, that would be Thursday, January 31...what time GMT do you want to start this shindig...?

I'm thinkin' more like Saturday night/ Sunday morning February 2/3. Actually 02/034 between 0530 and 1430 utc.
Kick off at 11:30 p.m. Central Standard Time on Saturday Feb 2.

I'm still waitin' to hear from the Crawfish Kitchen in down town Louisana for confirmation of participation. I've already said the train ain't leavin' the station without Jimbo.

J.D.

a blinkin' light Locus on the HARN point at night will attract less attention from the local adult supervision than my cows used to...

Thanks guys, that was great. I will now print the whole lot out and learn, learn, learn.....

We'll start the kettle boiling and have us an allnighter. Throw in a bit (a ton) of Zattarin's Crab boil and be set for the midmorning (2-3 am) munchies.

If this is a go for the 2/2/2 date I'll see if I can get one on the PAC station at the orange airport also. Gives me a leapfrog to BEA CORS.....30± mile legs.

Jimbo

I don't know if you got the emails yesterday or not. One was sent back undeliverable within minutes. Don't know if you got the other.

Yep, the plan is as we discussed a few weeks ago. Begin Feb 2 at about 11:30 p.m. Central Time and run units till 08:30 a.m. Feb 3.

Shawn will be in Burkeville, TX on an "unknown" to shorten the tie between Stumpwater and the Crawfish Kitchen. I will be somewhere around Lake Texoma to "densify" in the direction of Indian Territory. Will have to get the "third hand" to come by and push the button on the Locus Saturday night.

J.D.

actually, I'd rather come help you "stay awake". I'll even bring the boilers and cookers.....

Nope,

No e-mails made it yet but I have gotten a few others so yours is probably on the looooooonnnnngggggg cyberspace route to here.

Thank Bellsouth for me. Is that the one that kicked back fast ?? Do ya have a time of day that ya sent it ?? Try sending the error message to me via

wesi@iamerica.net

so I can b**ch and yell and scream at them some more.

Thanks,
Jimbo

I might cheat and take the easy way out. Steamboat Bill's boils up some mighty fine crawfish...and they aren't that much more than live.
Modified By James Webb on 1/22/2002 at 11:58 AM